Second year from the Paris Agreement, What Now?

Paris Agreement was celebrated with joy by the international community when it was tabled back on 12 December 2015. Although it was a significant achievement by the opposing blocs (putting it generally, the developing and developed countries), it is a document outlining the main objectives of the fight against climate change. However, there is more work to be done. Details of the modalities need to be ironed out as soon as possible in order to pave the way forward towards the realization of the Paris Agreement. That is why COP 23 will be a technical COP, where the parties will (continue to) plan out what they want and what they don’t want in the “rulebook”.

Excitement after the Paris Agreement was tabled

The “Rulebook”

169 countries out of the 197 countries that ratified the Convention have ratified the Paris Agreement. The Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 as countries ratifying have passed the threshold for entry into force of the Agreement, allowing the conveying of the first session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1) took place just in time, right at COP 22 in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Under the Paris Agreement, parties have agreed to reduce emissions and attempt to limit global temperature rise to a maximum of 2 degree Celsius from pre-industrial level. In order to achieve this, parties will now have to come to a consensus on the details of the implementation of the Paris Agreement – the “rulebook”.

What to expect from the negotiations?

Considering the implementation of the Paris Agreement will come in place in 2020, parties will need to outline details of the agenda items on the Paris Agreement Work Program and build the roadmap towards the Facilitative Dialogue in 2018 that will assess countries’ progress towards Paris Agreement. We are hoping to see text(s) for the implementation guidelines being tabled by the end of this COP.

Rules, Modalities, and Procedure

Countries will now have to agree on the reporting mechanism to ensure that the information submitted by parties (including adaption, finance, policies, measures, and projections) are accurate. This transparency framework is necessary for upholding the integrity of the agreement. Emphasis was placed on avoiding double counting in the transfer of international units. Other accounting framework includes international shipping and aviation, agriculture forestry and other land use, as well as non-financial support. Only when these actions are in place can the ambitions for the negotiations increase. However, it is vital to note the importance of flexibility in the proposed framework to serve as an encouragement to the parties to ensure the highest level of accuracy.

The Ambition Mechanism

One of the focus of the ambition mechanism in this COP is to lay the grounds for an effective Facilitative Dialogue in 2018 (also known as the Talanoa Dialogue), taking place two years before the submission of parties’ new and updated NDCs. The Talanoa Dialogue will be the first test for the post-ratification Paris Agreement. If the mechanism fails to deliver, it would directly threaten the international climate change negotiation regime. Therefore, it is necessary for the Talanoa Dialogue to provide a clear overview of the pre-2020 action through constructive and inclusive debates. The dialogue should explore options of pushing for the conditional ambitions in the NDCs in conjunction with the review of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) review in 2018. 

Aside from these two components, COP 23 will also expect discussion on all other aspects of the Paris Agreement including Loss and Damage, Adaptation, Agriculture, Finance, Technology, ACE, Civil Society Participation, Gender Action Plan and more.

Reference:

http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php
http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/10265.php